Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC, LLCScarinci Hollenbeck, LLC, LLC

Firm Insights

The Battle for the US House Is Far From Over — What Businesses Need to Know

Author: Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC

Date: April 27, 2021

Key Contacts

Back
The Battle for the US House Is Far From Over — What Businesses Need to Know

While Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives, their reign may be short lived...

While Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives, their reign may be short-lived. In the coming months, several special elections will be held that have the potential to shift the balance of power. Since WW2, the average loss in the House for a president’s party in his first midterm has been about 28 seats.  If that trend holds in 2022, Republicans will have 241 seats (to Democrats 194) come January 2023.

Democrats Hold Slim Majority in House

Democrats currently hold a slim six-seat majority in the House. With the swearing in of Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA), the Democrats hold 218 seats, while the Republicans hold 212. There are currently five vacancies, which will be filled in special elections held over the next several months: the Louisiana 2nd District on April 24, Texas 6th on May 1, New Mexico 1st on June 1, and Ohio 11th on November 2. The special election to fill the seat of Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), who passed away on April 6, 2021, has not yet been scheduled.

Practically speaking, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’smajority is down to two votes, a fact not lost on Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy. “If we flip three, we can take down a bill,” he recently stated. With one of the tightest margins in Congressional history, the speaker can’t afford to lose any Democrats on any bill right now, which may make it difficult to achieve some of President Joe Biden’s more progressive policy goals.

The last time the margin was this slim was 1931. After the 1930 election, Republicans held control in the House by three seats. Republican Nicholas Longworth, the Speaker of the House in the previous Congress, was Speaker-presumptive. However, he died before Congress convened. In total, 14 Members-elect died between Election Day 1930 and the start of the 72nd Congress (1931–1933). The results of the subsequent special elections caused party control of the House to change, with Democrats holding the majority of the House seats.

Special elections could result in a similar situation in 2021. If the Republicans were to win a special election (e.g. New Mexico), it would result in a Democratic majority of one. Further, if the Republicans could convince three Democrats to switch parties (or more) given the “inevitable” change in control next year, we could see a House flip for the first time since 1931.  

2022 Midterm Elections Could Flip the House

The midterm elections, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, also have the potential to alter the balance of power in both the House and the Senate.  During the midterms, all 435 seats in the House and 34 of the 100 seats in Senate will be contested. 

In bad news for President Biden, the party of first-term presidents tends to lose seats in the first midterm election following their election, a phenomenon often referred to as the “midterm curse.” In 2010, President Barack Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats, which the President acknowledged was a “shellacking.” President Donald Trump’s Republicans lost 40 in 2018. In 1994, President Bill Clinton’s House majority disappeared when Democrats lost 54 seats.

Of course, it is possible that Democrats buck the trend. As the Hill reports, polling currently suggests that the popularity of President Biden’s COVID-19 policies and proposed infrastructure plan may give Democrats a boost. At the same time, Republicans in several states will soon be redrawing congressional lines and will undoubtedly seek to use redistricting to favor their party. Accordingly, the only thing that is certain at this point is that the midterms have the potential to shake up the power structure in Congress and will ultimately make it either easier or more difficult for President Biden to advance his agenda.

If you have questions, please contact us

With all of the changes within Washington, D.C., it’s important to have someone who knows how to navigate the rapidly-evolving landscape and advocate for your business. Let me help you by providing strategic guidance that positions your business for success in these turbulent times. If you have any questions or if you would like to discuss the matter further, please contact me, Teddy Eynon, or the Scarinci Hollenbeck attorney with whom you work, at 201-896-4100.

No Aspect of the advertisement has been approved by the Supreme Court. Results may vary depending on your particular facts and legal circumstances.

Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC, LLC

Related Posts

See all
How Understanding Bankruptcy Trends Can Benefit Your Business post image

How Understanding Bankruptcy Trends Can Benefit Your Business

The bankruptcy legal landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for businesses navigating financial distress. Understanding current bankruptcy trends can help businesses make more informed and strategic decisions. Corporate Bankruptcy Filings Trending Upwards Bankruptcy filings continued to trend upwards in 2024. According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, personal and business […]

Author: Brian D. Spector

Link to post with title - "How Understanding Bankruptcy Trends Can Benefit Your Business"
SEC Takes Actions Against Issuers for Failure to File Form D post image

SEC Takes Actions Against Issuers for Failure to File Form D

In December, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced charges against two privately held companies for failing to file a Form D notice, which is generally utilized for exempt securities offerings. Here, the SEC’s enforcement sends a strong message: compliance with regulatory requirements is not optional and failure to comply can have significant consequences. […]

Author: Kenneth C. Oh

Link to post with title - "SEC Takes Actions Against Issuers for Failure to File Form D"
Redefining Labor Relations: NLRB's Pivot from Abruzzo’s Memoranda post image

Redefining Labor Relations: NLRB's Pivot from Abruzzo’s Memoranda

On February 14, 2025, the Office of General Counsel (OGC) of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) under Acting General Counsel William B. Cowen issued Memorandum 25-05, “New Process for More Efficient, Effective, Accessible and Transparent Case handling.” The Memorandum rescinds nearly all of the Memoranda issued by his direct predecessor, Jennifer Abruzzo, setting the […]

Author: Matthew F. Mimnaugh

Link to post with title - "Redefining Labor Relations: NLRB's Pivot from Abruzzo’s Memoranda"
What Are FIRPTA Withholding Requirements? post image

What Are FIRPTA Withholding Requirements?

If you purchase real property from a foreign person or entity, you may be required to withhold taxes from your payment to the seller under the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA). The federal tax law is designed to ensure that foreign sellers pay any applicable capital gains tax on profits realized from […]

Author: Jesse M. Dimitro

Link to post with title - "What Are FIRPTA Withholding Requirements?"
Does Your Homeowners Insurance Provide Adequate Coverage? post image

Does Your Homeowners Insurance Provide Adequate Coverage?

Your home is likely your greatest asset, which is why it is so important to adequately protect it. Homeowners insurance protects you from the financial costs of unforeseen losses, such as theft, fire, and natural disasters, by helping you rebuild and replace possessions that were lost While the definition of “adequate” coverage depends upon a […]

Author: Jesse M. Dimitro

Link to post with title - "Does Your Homeowners Insurance Provide Adequate Coverage?"
Understanding the Importance of a Non-Contingent Offer post image

Understanding the Importance of a Non-Contingent Offer

Making a non-contingent offer can dramatically increase your chances of securing a real estate transaction, particularly in competitive markets like New York City. However, buyers should understand that waiving contingencies, including those related to financing, or appraisals, also comes with significant risks. Determining your best strategy requires careful analysis of the property, the market, and […]

Author: Jesse M. Dimitro

Link to post with title - "Understanding the Importance of a Non-Contingent Offer"

No Aspect of the advertisement has been approved by the Supreme Court. Results may vary depending on your particular facts and legal circumstances.

Sign up to get the latest from our attorneys!

Explore What Matters Most to You.

Consider subscribing to our Firm Insights mailing list by clicking the button below so you can keep up to date with the firm`s latest articles covering various legal topics.

Stay informed and inspired with the latest updates, insights, and events from Scarinci Hollenbeck. Our resource library provides valuable content across a range of categories to keep you connected and ahead of the curve.

Let`s get in touch!

* The use of the Internet or this form for communication with the firm or any individual member of the firm does not establish an attorney-client relationship. Confidential or time-sensitive information should not be sent through this form.

Sign up to get the latest from the Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC attorneys!

Please select a category(s) below: