While Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives, their reign may be short lived...
While Democrats are now in control of the U.S. House of Representatives, their reign may be short-lived. In the coming months, several special elections will be held that have the potential to shift the balance of power. Since WW2, the average loss in the House for a president’s party in his first midterm has been about 28 seats. If that trend holds in 2022, Republicans will have 241 seats (to Democrats 194) come January 2023.
Democrats Hold Slim Majority in House
Democrats currently hold a slim six-seat majority in the House. With the swearing in of Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA), the Democrats hold 218 seats, while the Republicans hold 212. There are currently five vacancies, which will be filled in special elections held over the next several months: the Louisiana 2nd District on April 24, Texas 6th on May 1, New Mexico 1st on June 1, and Ohio 11th on November 2. The special election to fill the seat of Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-FL), who passed away on April 6, 2021, has not yet been scheduled.
Practically speaking, Speaker Nancy Pelosi’smajority is down to two votes, a fact not lost on Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy. “If we flip three, we can take down a bill,” he recently stated. With one of the tightest margins in Congressional history, the speaker can’t afford to lose any Democrats on any bill right now, which may make it difficult to achieve some of President Joe Biden’s more progressive policy goals.
The last time the margin was this slim was 1931. After the 1930 election, Republicans held control in the House by three seats. Republican Nicholas Longworth, the Speaker of the House in the previous Congress, was Speaker-presumptive. However, he died before Congress convened. In total, 14 Members-elect died between Election Day 1930 and the start of the 72nd Congress (1931–1933). The results of the subsequent special elections caused party control of the House to change, with Democrats holding the majority of the House seats.
Special elections could result in a similar situation in 2021. If the Republicans were to win a special election (e.g. New Mexico), it would result in a Democratic majority of one. Further, if the Republicans could convince three Democrats to switch parties (or more) given the “inevitable” change in control next year, we could see a House flip for the first time since 1931.
2022 Midterm Elections Could Flip the House
The midterm elections, which will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, also have the potential to alter the balance of power in both the House and the Senate. During the midterms, all 435 seats in the House and 34 of the 100 seats in Senate will be contested.
In bad news for President Biden, the party of first-term presidents tends to lose seats in the first midterm election following their election, a phenomenon often referred to as the “midterm curse.” In 2010, President Barack Obama’s Democrats lost 63 seats, which the President acknowledged was a “shellacking.” President Donald Trump’s Republicans lost 40 in 2018. In 1994, President Bill Clinton’s House majority disappeared when Democrats lost 54 seats.
Of course, it is possible that Democrats buck the trend. As the Hill reports, polling currently suggests that the popularity of President Biden’s COVID-19 policies and proposed infrastructure plan may give Democrats a boost. At the same time, Republicans in several states will soon be redrawing congressional lines and will undoubtedly seek to use redistricting to favor their party. Accordingly, the only thing that is certain at this point is that the midterms have the potential to shake up the power structure in Congress and will ultimately make it either easier or more difficult for President Biden to advance his agenda.
If you have questions, please contact us
With all of the changes within Washington, D.C., it’s important to have someone who knows how to navigate the rapidly-evolving landscape and advocate for your business. Let me help you by providing strategic guidance that positions your business for success in these turbulent times.If you have any questions or if you would like to discuss the matter further, please contact me, Teddy Eynon, or the Scarinci Hollenbeck attorney with whom you work, at 201-896-4100.
What Business Owners Get Wrong Before Meeting a Litigation Attorney
What should you expect when meeting a litigation attorney about a business dispute? You should expect to describe the dispute in your own words, hand over the most important documents, flag any deadlines or immediate threats, and leave with a clearer picture of the problem, what information is still needed, and the likely next steps. […]
Arbitration vs. Litigation vs. Mediation: What New Jersey Businesses Should Know Before Signing a Contract
Arbitration resolves disputes privately before an arbitrator whose decision is usually final, while litigation resolves them in court with full rights of appeal. Whether a business ends up in arbitration or litigation is often decided when it signs the contract, long before any dispute arises. Key Takeaways When facing a contract dispute, carefully consider your […]
Can You Own Part of a New Jersey Business Without a Written Agreement?
Can you own part of a business in New Jersey without a written agreement? Yes, it is possible. Under New Jersey’s Uniform Partnership Act, a partnership can arise when two or more people carry on a business as co-owners for profit, whether or not they ever intended to form one. Ownership doesn’t necessarily depend on […]
Crisis-Proofing Your New Jersey Business: Building a Crisis Response Plan Before You Need One
For New Jersey businesses, crisis preparedness should be viewed as a legal and operational function, not simply an emergency-management exercise. A well-designed crisis response plan can help preserve evidence, protect confidential communications, meet reporting obligations, limit unnecessary exposure, and prevent an already difficult situation from becoming a larger legal problem. Key Takeaways A serious crisis […]
Monmouth County's Next Development Wave: What Developers and Investors Need to Know
Monmouth County is entering a significant new phase of development. For those looking to acquire property or undertake a new project, understanding the market opportunity is only the beginning. The more important question is whether a particular property can actually be developed as contemplated and what approvals, agreements, and other conditions will be required to […]
Are Your Conversations with AI Shielded from Discovery? Courts Are Split
Whether a client’s prompts to a generative AI tool and the documents it produces are protected from disclosure depends on the case type, who claims protection, and whether counsel was involved. In United States v. Heppner, a New York federal judge ruled that a criminal defendant’s communications with an AI platform were protected by neither […]
No Aspect of the advertisement has been approved by the Supreme Court. Results may vary depending on your particular facts and legal circumstances.
Sign up to get the latest from our attorneys!
Explore What Matters Most to You.
Consider subscribing to our Firm Insights mailing list by clicking the button below so you can keep up to date with the firm`s latest articles covering various legal topics.
Stay informed and inspired with the latest updates, insights, and events from Scarinci Hollenbeck. Our resource library provides valuable content across a range of categories to keep you connected and ahead of the curve.
Let`s get in touch!
Sign up to get the latest from the Scarinci Hollenbeck, LLC attorneys!
